Publications

A complete citation record is also available on Google Scholar.

Preprints & manuscripts

Debiased Counterfactual Generation via Flow Matching from Observations
Hugh Dance, Johnny Xi, Peter Orbanz, Benjamin Bloem-Reddy
Under review at NeurIPS 2026
Paper
Neural Autonomous Differential Equations: Integration-Free Learning for Time-Invariant Dynamics
Mohadeseh Shafiei Kafraj, Hugh Dance, Johnny Xi, Reidar Riveland, Peter E. Latham, Peter Orbanz
Under review at NeurIPS 2026
Counterfactual Cocycles: A Framework for Robust and Coherent Counterfactual Transports
Hugh Dance, Benjamin Bloem-Reddy
In revision at the Journal of Machine Learning Research
Paper·Code

Peer-reviewed publications

Interventional Processes for Causal Uncertainty Quantification
Hugh Dance, Peter Orbanz, Arthur Gretton
Proceedings of the 43rd International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 2026)
Paper
Distinguishing Cause from Effect with Causal Velocity Models
Johnny Xi, Hugh Dance, Peter Orbanz, Benjamin Bloem-Reddy
Proceedings of the 42nd International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 2025)
Paper·Code
Efficiently Vectorized MCMC on Modern Accelerators
Hugh Dance, Pierre Glaser, Peter Orbanz, Ryan P. Adams
Proceedings of the 42nd International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 2025) Spotlight
Paper·Code
Fast and Scalable Spike and Slab Variable Selection in High-Dimensional Gaussian Processes
Hugh Dance, Brooks Paige
Proceedings of the 25th International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics (AISTATS 2022) Oral presentation
Paper·Code

Selected industry & policy publications

The Macroeconomic Impact of Artificial Intelligence
Jonathan Gillham, Lucy Rimmington, Hugh Dance, Gerard Verweij, Anand Rao, K. Barnard Roberts, Mark Paich
PwC technical report, 2018
A Machine Learning Approach to Estimating Current GDP Growth
Sam Hinds, Lucy Rimmington, Hugh Dance, Jonathan Gillham, Andrew Sentance, John Hawksworth
PwC UK Economic Outlook, July 2017
Report